Introduction
Following Bitcoin’s retreat from its all-time high near $126,000, the options market has entered a phase of recalibration. Traders are actively redefining their exposure, balancing caution with selective optimism as volatility resurfaces. The data from this week’s expiry, along with positioning across upcoming contracts, reveals a market that is growing more sophisticated—where risk management and strategic writing have replaced speculative excess.
This Outlook examines that evolution through multiple lenses: the post-expiry landscape of November 7, upcoming positioning into mid- and late-November expiries, and the broader rise in open interest and implied volatility. Dealer gamma profiles, Thales Heatmap activity, and a featured Call Ratio Backspread illustrate how participants are structuring trades in response to shifting sentiment. Together, they outline a market that, while no longer euphoric, remains structurally strong and increasingly disciplined.
Explore these market dynamics firsthand with the Thales Options Strategy Simulator (OSS)
Market Snapshot
November 7, 2025
This Friday’s expiry settled near $102k, leaving most puts and calls worthless except for a small cluster of in-the-money puts above $102k.
Roughly $4.5 billion in notional value expired this Friday, as Bitcoin settled near $102,000, notably below the max pain level of $107,000. This outcome left the majority of contracts expiring out of the money, with only a limited number of put options above $102,000 retaining any intrinsic value.
The $100,000 put—one of the most heavily traded strikes—ended worthless, providing relief to sellers who had been exposed to downside risk earlier in the week. On the other side of the book, call options at $120,000 and $125,000 also expired worthless as Bitcoin failed to retest its all-time high and instead retraced toward the lower-$100k zone.
While the weekly close below max pain suggests sellers captured most of the premium, the fact that the $100k strike held firm prevented a deeper correction. By the way, for the bulls this expiry could have been worse—but the market found support right where it mattered most.
Next Friday; November 14, 2025
Upcoming November 14 expiry shows a put spread at $95k–$100k, with diversified call interest extending toward $125k and max pain near $106k.
For the upcoming November 14 expiry, open interest currently stands near 37,000 contracts, representing roughly $3.8 billion in notional value. The Put/Call ratio of 0.66 signals a relative dominance of call positioning, though the underlying structure reveals a more nuanced sentiment.
The two largest open interest clusters are found at the $95,000 and $100,000 put strikes, forming what appears to be a put spread. This configuration suggests that traders are still hedging against a potential decline below $100k, yet they do not expect an extended move beyond $95k.
On the call side, open interest is more evenly distributed across a broad range of strikes, hinting at mild bullish optimism rather than a concentrated directional bet — positioning that aligns with a market anticipating gradual recovery rather than explosive momentum.
Longer-Term Outlook
Put-heavy short-term expiries point to caution, while December 26 shows dominant call positioning, signaling year-end bullish sentiment.
Taking a broader view of open interest across expirations, we can observe that—apart from the December 26 contracts—put positioning has increased notably compared with its usual levels. This shift points to a more conservative tone among traders, with many seeking downside protection or expressing caution following Bitcoin’s recent pullback from its all-time high.
However, the December 26 expiry tells a different story. Here, call open interest exceeds puts by two to one, reflecting persistent optimism toward the year’s end.
Implied Volatility
Implied volatility rebounded from its September lows near 33% to nearly 50% after Bitcoin’s correction from its all-time high.
After months of steady decline, Bitcoin’s implied volatility (IV) has finally broken higher. Following the recent correction from its all-time high near $126,000, IV has surged from around 33% in September to nearly 50% today.
Throughout most of 2025, implied volatility had been in a prolonged downtrend—reflecting market complacency and a lack of significant directional movement. Even strong rallies and brief corrections failed to revive option premiums. That changed abruptly with the recent pullback: traders rushed to hedge their exposure, driving IV sharply higher.
Implied volatility (orange) rebounded as Bitcoin (blue) pulled back from its ATH, underscoring the inverse relationship between price strength and volatility.
The recent surge in implied volatility (IV) becomes clearer when viewed alongside Bitcoin’s spot price. As illustrated in the Amberdata chart, the orange curve (DVOL) shows a sharp rebound in volatility precisely as the blue curve (Bitcoin price) reversed from its all-time high near $126,000.
For most of 2025, IV had been in a persistent downtrend—gradually compressing from above 60% to around 33% by September, even as Bitcoin’s price advanced. This suggested traders were growing comfortable with steady price appreciation and saw little need for protection. However, the correction from late October disrupted that complacency: as Bitcoin fell back toward the $100k zone, volatility spiked sharply, rising to nearly 50%.
The strong inverse correlation between DVOL and Bitcoin’s price remains evident—sharp declines in price continue to fuel volatility spikes. This pattern indicates that hedging demand and risk perception have returned to the market, marking a mild shift from the calm, low-volatility phase that defined most of the year.
Market Growth & Open Interest
Open interest rose from 217k to over 400k contracts in 2025, exceeding $40 billion in notional value—marking continued market growth and structural maturity.
From a broader perspective, open interest in Bitcoin options has shown a steady and impressive expansion throughout 2025. Starting the year with around 217,000 open contracts, total open interest has now climbed to over 400,000 contracts, representing more than $40 billion in notional value.
This consistent growth underscores the deepening maturity of the Bitcoin derivatives market. Rather than being driven solely by speculative bursts, the increase in participation and notional exposure reflects a more structurally stable ecosystem—with both institutional and sophisticated retail traders increasingly using options for hedging, yield generation, and strategic positioning.
Such growth not only strengthens market depth but also makes Bitcoin’s volatility and price discovery mechanisms more efficient, signaling an ecosystem that is both expanding and evolving.
Gamma Exposure and Market Positioning
Positive gamma across all strikes for dealers.
A look at the dealers’ gamma profile on Deribit provides further insight into the market’s internal structure. The chart shows that gamma remains positive across all strikes, indicating that most active participants—and not market makers—are net short options, adopting a writing (option-selling) approach.
This is a sign of market maturity. A predominance of option writing suggests traders are increasingly using derivatives not just for speculation but for income generation and risk control. Around the $120,000 strike, the profile shows that market makers could gain over $100 million for every 1% move in Bitcoin’s price, due to dealers long gamma positions.
Such positioning tends to dampen volatility, as they create natural support and resistance zones in the market—narrowing the amplitude of Bitcoin’s price swings and contributing to a more stable trading environment.
Recent Activities
Heatmap
Persistent activity between $95k and $120k across mid-to-late November expiries.
(OSS)
To observe recent market activity, we turn to the Thales Heatmap, which highlights where Bitcoin option traders have been most active. The yellow clusters indicate the “hot zones” of trading concentration.
On November 4, precisely as Bitcoin’s price dropped toward and briefly below the $100,000 level, we have hot areas between $95k and 120k across the last three Fridays of November — 14th, 21st, and 28th.
Market Screener
Filtered trades from Nov 4 show a structured mix of short puts, short calls, and long calls — positioning for stability between $100k and $122k.
(OSS)
To better understand the activity observed on the Thales Heatmap, we refer to the Market Screener, filtering trades entered on November 4 with expiries on November 14, 21, and 28.
The PnL graph (left) illustrates the combined payoff of the filtered positions, while the Theta graph (right) shows their Theta profile. Together, these reveal three dominant positions:
Short out-of-the-money puts around the $95,000 strike
Short out-of-the-money calls near $113,000
Long calls concentrated around the $100,000 strike
Collectively, these positions form a neutral-to-moderately bullish stance, with traders effectively targeting a profit zone between $100,000 and $122,000 for November. This structure suggests an expectation of price stability or gradual recovery following the recent correction.
Of course, these represent the positions as of a specific moment in time (Nov 4) and can evolve quickly as market conditions shift. Nonetheless, the data provides a valuable snapshot of how traders balanced risk and opportunity immediately after Bitcoin’s sharp move below $100k.
Nov 28th Dealer's Gamma
Positive dealer gamma peaking near $120k shows traders short calls.
To gauge traders’ positioning for the last Friday of November, we review the dealers’ gamma profile, knowing that traders’ gamma exposure is typically the opposite. The chart shows positive dealer gamma across all strikes, meaning dealers are long gamma and traders are net short options.
The peak near the $120,000 strike suggests traders have been selling calls at that level. This could reflect limited upside expectations, covered-call writing by long holders seeking yield, or simply be part of complex positions such as calendar spreads.
In all cases, the structure points to a measured and mature market stance, balancing risk rather than chasing momentum.
Strategy Spotlight
A Call Ratio Backspread
A 1.5 ratio call spread with short 105k and long 112k strikes. Profit above 123k, limited risk between 106k and 123k.
(OSS)
In this week’s spotlight, we identified a Call Ratio Backspread executed on November 7 involving 125 contracts on Deribit. The position consists of:
Short 50 call options at the $105,000 strike
Long 75 call options at the $112,000 strike
Both expiring on November 21.
This 1.5 ratio call spread was placed as a single block trade and structured as a credit spread, meaning the trader collected more premium than paid.
The PnL profile shows a loss zone between $106k and $123k, with maximum loss near $112k. However, above $123k, the strategy’s profit potential becomes unlimited—a clear sign of bullish expectation. If Bitcoin stays below $106k by expiry, the trader still retains a small profit of around $50k, while the worst outcome occurs if the price gravitates toward $112k.
Given that an increase in implied volatility benefits this setup, the trader was likely positioning for either a sharp upward move or a volatility expansion—while maintaining limited downside risk. It’s a sophisticated structure that blends directional optimism with disciplined risk management.
Bottom Line
Bitcoin remains in a correction phase, struggling to hold above key resistance levels—most notably the $100k mark. This uncertainty has pushed implied volatility near 50% and brought the put/call ratio closer to 1, reflecting a more balanced yet cautious market tone. Large participants appear to have adopted a selling approach, with traders increasingly writing options, which in turn keeps dealer gamma positive and contributes to a more stable trading environment. In such conditions, simple long strategies offer limited edge, while advanced, calculated structures—like the Call Ratio Backspread highlighted in this Outlook—stand a better chance of success. At the same time, the steady rise in total open interest underscores the growing depth and maturity of the Bitcoin options market, as it evolves into a more structured and strategically driven ecosystem.
Disclaimer
This report is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. The analysis and opinions expressed reflect market observations at the time of writing and are not recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any financial instrument. Options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Readers should conduct their own research or consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.